Financial Independence and Retire Early - F.I.R.E.

This isn’t another one about Buffett’s wisdom on investing or life. It is about the relationship between time, health and money using Buffett’s wealth and age as clickbait. The author begins with “Would you rather have $0 and be 20 years old, or have $100 billion and be 90? Most people respond to this hypothetical with a resounding “Of course not, there’s no amount of money I would take to fast-forward to being 90 years old.””

“There’s a popular movement called F.I.R.E. (Financial Independence, Retire Early), where followers are devoted to living as frugally as possible so that they can retire as early as possible. While I agree with a lot of the merits of F.I.R.E. (namely the F.I. part), I disagree with the R.E. part. Retiring 10 years early at the expense of a considerable portion of one of the most valuable periods of life (your 20s/30s) seems absurd. 

For one, what is 10 years in the grand scheme of your life? On the back end, the last 10 years are almost negligible (besides, you don’t know if you’re going to live to 90 or 100 anyways). But on the front end, they’re considerably more valuable.

Secondly, work can (and should) be a large part of what drives fulfillment. Progress with whatever we're pursuing (whether we call it work or not) is one of the key drivers of happiness, so we shouldn't discount the value of work and its impact on our overall well-being.

Would you give up 10 years on the tail end of your life if it meant that you would have a more fulfilling 20s/30s? I think most of us would take that rather than the opposite — optimizing solely for wealth early-on to get an extra 10 years of retirement at the end.”

Buffett and Munger are perhaps the best example of deriving fulfilment from their work well into their 90s.

He then ties health, time and money together:

“Certain experiences that require peak physical health might only be possible in the 20s and 30s phase. For example, say you want to run your fastest marathon, or you’re like these two friends, Phil and Carter, and you want to journey from Beijing to Barcelona by bike. Sure, no one needs to do these things, but they’re experiences that would be incredibly enriching and novel.

And sometimes, physical health isn’t the constraint. If you have children, they will only live with you for 18 years of their lives, and before you know it, they’re gone. Any experiences you want to have with your kids, you have a limited time window to do those things. So, it makes sense that at this phase (the roughly 20 year period where you have children at home), most people would find the greatest fulfillment by optimizing for time spent with their kids — earning those experience points while that window exists.

A bonus of having richer experiences earlier in life is that you not only get experience points, but these early experiences pay “memory dividends” in the value of the stories they create — stories that can be retold time and time again.

Experiences yield dividends because we humans have memory. We don’t start every day with a blank brain… We wake up every morning preloaded with a bunch of memories that we can access at any time.

When you add in this concept of a memory dividend to the net fulfillment equation, something becomes clear: it pays to invest in experiences early.

Compounding works not only with money, but also with experiences.”

The author concludes with some brilliant graphic illustrations on why ‘Net Fulfilment’ over ‘Net Worth’ is a better pursuit in life.

Disclaimer : This is purely a knowledge sharing article, not offering or influencing any deal or transaction or investments.

CA Yogesh Birla

Director
Birla WP Management Co.
read my blogs : www.YogeshBirlaCA.Blogspot.com

Long Term Investors & Stock Market - 8 Lessons

"If you are a long-term investor, you should own high- quality stocks and close your ears to the siren song of those who say a rate rise will cause you problems.*

If you are not a long-term investor, I wonder what you are doing in the stock market at all, and so will you one day."*

- Terry Smith.......The "Buffett of Great Britain"

Terry Smith, often known as the English Warren Buffett, has once again shared his annual letter encompassing ideas on investment strategies positioned to do well, views on specific stocks and thoughts on the current financial world. 

Well-known in the UK among retail investors, Smith’s Fundsmith Equity fund returned about 18.6% in 2021 and holds 28.9 billion pounds ($39.4 billion).

Here are 8 lessons that we must take from his vision :

*1) No investment strategy will outperform in every reporting period and every type of market condition. So, as much as we may not like it, we can expect some periods of underperformance.*

*2) In investment, as in life, you cannot have your cake and eat it, so it is difficult if not impossible to find companies which are resilient in a downturn but which also benefit fully from the subsequent recovery.*

*3) In our view, it would be a mistake to sell some of these good businesses in order to invest temporarily in companies which are much worse but which have greater recovery potential.*

*4) Someone once said that no one ever got poor by taking profits. This may be true but I doubt they got very rich by this approach.*

*5) We invest in companies, not indices or countries and in our view, the country where a company is listed is largely irrelevant.*

*6) We continue to apply a simple three step investment strategy: Buy good companies, don't overpay, do nothing (i.e., minimising portfolio turnover to minimise costs)*

*7) You may have heard a lot talked about the so-called 'rotation' from quality stocks of the sort we seek to own to so-called value stocks, which in many cases is simply taken as equating to lowly rated companies.*

 

*8) Inflation: It is a bit like trying to light a bonfire or a traditional BBQ on a damp day. If you put an accelerant like gasoline on it you can go from no fire to a loud ‘Whoosh!’ and find that you have also set fire to the garden fence.*

The good news is that we do not invest on the basis of our ability to forecast inflation or any other macroeconomic factor. We invest in companies not countries, indices or macroeconomic forecasts.*

Disclaimer : This is purely a knowledge sharing article, not offering or influencing any deal or transaction or investments.

CA Yogesh Birla

Director
Birla WP Management Co.
read my blogs : www.YogeshBirlaCA.Blogspot.com

Why Willful Defaulters are laughing away from Banks ??

New RBI data shows wilful defaulters are laughing all the way away from banks

The saying goes if you owe the bank $100 that is your problem; if you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem.

Banks put all their might to get the money back from retail borrowers if they default on a car or an auto loan. Delay one instalment and banks come knocking on the door. They even resort to naming and shaming tactics, using third parties. The tactics seem to work in most cases and the borrower pays back.

But it is an entirely different game when it comes to corporate loan default, which is at a much bigger scale. Banks seem to forget their drill when faced with powerful defaulters, who have a battery of lawyers which drag the lenders from court to court for years on end. And in the end, banks have little to show by way of recovery.

The numbers game...Ugly numbers are already popping up. The Reserve Bank of India data, shared with Parliament, on December 19 shows that the country’s top 50 "wilful defaulters" owed Rs 92,570 crore to Indian banks as of March 31, 2022.

Wilful defaulters are those borrowers who have the means to pay back the banks but wouldn't do so. Banks ostracise such defaulters from the financial system. Gitanjali Gems, promoted by fugitive economic offender Mehul Choksi, tops the list with Rs 7,848 crore, followed by Era Infra, an exposure of Rs 5,879 crore and Rei Agro which has defaulted on loans worth Rs 4,803 crore.

Choksi, said to be an Antiguan citizen now, is beyond the reach of Indian law. The government and its several law enforcement agencies have, so far, failed to lay hands on any of the high-profile bank defaulters, which include former liquor baron Vijay Mallya, Winsome Diamonds & Jewellery promoter Jatin Mehta and Choksi’s nephew Nirav Modi, who is fighting his extradition from the UK.

But it’s not just about wilful defaults. Much of the Rs 10 lakh crore loan that banks wrote off in the last five financial years belongs to corporates.

Of the total loan write-off, banks could recover only a fraction—around Rs one lakh crore. The remaining Rs 9 lakh crore is as good as gone, though technically the process of recovery is always on.

It’s our money

Every rupee that a bank writes off has to be provided for—called provisioning in the bankspeak.

Banks' profitability thus takes a hit. Who are the real losers? Common shareholders and depositors. Banks are supposed to be the guardians of public money. They raise deposits from small and big depositors and use these to lend to businesses.

So whenever a loan is not repaid, it’s the shareholder of the banks (value erosion) and the depositors (as the bank turns weaker in terms of capital and profitability) who suffer.

The government has, time and again, reiterated its intent to clamp down on wilful defaulters.

Coordinated action by the government, RBI and other sector regulators is critical to tackling wilful defaulters as seen in the Kingfisher case.

Banks are sitting ducks for cronies and crooks. In most cases, banks haven’t made meaningful progress in the recovery from deep-pocketed and well-connected promoters. At the end of a long legal process, the value of underlying assets deteriorates and banks are left empty-handed.

The government’s intervention to speed up the recovery process is equally critical since each penny it feeds to state-run banks from the exchequer is public money.

A lot of ground needs to be covered and quickly, as the loan write-off and wilful defaulter numbers show. Do the government and the RBI have the will to clamp down on wilful defaulters?

(extracts of newspapers)

CA Yogesh Birla

Director
Birla WP Management Co.
read my blogs : www.YogeshBirlaCA.Blogspot.com

Is Paying Dividend, a Healthy Reinvestment favouring Shareholders

 

Paying dividend may not always be the best option. Many investors are very serious about dividends and they consider receiving Dividends is very important part of their Investing. They invest only in companies that have a good dividend history and avoid other that are not generous enough with their dividends payouts. But a high dividend-pay-out ratio may not always be the best take for investors. A healthy dividend pay-out is often lapped up by markets. The stock gets a thumps up and all parties, the company and its shareholders are happy about the outcome. But dividend largesse may not always be in the favour of investors value creation mechanism. Companies could deploy that cash into existing growth opportunities to remain competitive and best in the game. According to our investing matrix, a company can utilise its cash in four ways.

First, Reinvest the proceeds back into the business

Second, Go in for related acquisition

Third, Repurchase shares and…

Fourth, finally pay out dividends

See how paying no dividend could impact the fortunes of companies; If Infosys had paid no dividends and simply repurchased shares, or developed new software and IT centres, it would have created more value for its Stakeholders, since ROI of their funds / business management is much higher that money in the hands of shareholders. Since investors will use their dividend money to buy other shares, or to buy bonds or to make bank FDR or spending. Other than spending, all other modes of reinvestment by shareholders will be lower than using that money by companies for betterment of their businesses. This concept that Utilising cash for other than dividends, is not the standard thing that is taught in the corporate finance department of our major universities. Why do we debate negatively, rather than applying this simple idea to make business stronger with internal accruals. Fund manager’s preference for no dividends do’not mean that they disapprove dividends that they gets from their investments…. but they vote in favour of more deeper value creation for shareholders.

The one thing I will tell you is the worst investment you can have is Cash. Everybody is talking about cash being king and all that sort of things. Cash is going to be come worthless over time, but good businesses are going to become worth more and costlier over time.

Disclaimer : This is purely a knowledge sharing article, not offering or influencing any deal or transaction or investments.

CA Yogesh Birla

Director
Birla WP Management Co.
read my blogs : www.YogeshBirlaCA.Blogspot.com

Investment with Moats Risk Management

 

While investing in equity, How to safeguard a Good story suddenly going bad, leaving no profitable exit…. lets choose companies with #unbreachable_moats. Capital flows to the point of maximum returns. When a company delivered outsized profits, its success attracts #competition. Other entrepreneurs enter the field with their own setup, often with #lower_priced_offerings, and take away the #first_movers market share. Competition forces the leader to cut prices and this whittles down his margins, impacting their bottom line directly.

Thus, over the time, the profits of most companies tend to regress to the mean. Legendry investors liked to invest in, the companies with big moat surrounding their business model and brand equity. Wealth creators in equity market guide big moats consists of following #matrix of

#early mover advantage

#high switching costs

#intangible assets

#network effect

# economies of scale.

If investors choose a company based on these moats, and do keep a close watch to ensure that the stocks script unfolds along the expected lines. One reason is that over the time lot of moats got breached, so timely moat tracking is must to keep value alive in equity. Next is to keep a watch on competitive advantage, other things could go wrong, say the management could slip up on execution, thus when you invest in a company with a visible economic advantage, you still cannot afford to let your guards down and let bottom line screwed up unknowingly. Its like building your investment castle, surrounded with big moats, having crocodiles within to create real value for your portfolio. One build, keep #tracking developments on the matrix of five, as mentioned above.

Disclaimer : This is purely a knowledge sharing article, not offering or influencing any deal or transaction or investments.

CA Yogesh Birla

Director
Birla WP Management Co.
read my blogs : www.YogeshBirlaCA.Blogspot.com

Saving Economy v/s Spending Economy; which is better……

Indians wastefully save…. Ask them to spend, on imported cars and, seriously, even on cosmetics!  This will put India on a growth curve. This is one of the reason for MNC's coming down to India, seeing the consumer spending. Does it not look true, with our traditional thought, let’s examine the same with global facts…

The Japanese save a lot.  They do not spend much.  Also, Japan exports far more than it imports. It has an annual trade surplus of over US$100 billion. Yet the Japanese economy is considered weak, even collapsing.

Americans spend a lot and save very little. Also United States of America (USA) imports more than it exports.  USA has an annual trade deficit of over $400 billion. Yet, the USA economy is considered strong and expected to get stronger.

But where do Americans get money to spend? 

They borrow from other countries like Japan, China and even India. Virtually others of the world have to save for the Americans to spend.  Global savings are mostly invested in USA, in dollars.

India itself keeps its foreign currency assets of over $50 billion in US securities.  China has sunk over $1.1 trillion in US securities.  Japan's stakes in US securities is in trillions.

RESULT :

The USA has taken over $5 trillion from the world.   

So, as the world saves for the USA - It is the Americans who are spending freely.   

Today, to keep the USA consumption going, that is for the USA economy to work, other countries have to remit $180 billion every quarter to the USA, which is $2 billion a day, to the USA!

A Chinese economist asked a neat question. Who has invested more, USA in China, or China in USA?   

The US has invested in China less than half of what China has invested in the USA.

The same is the case with India.  India has invested over $50 billion in the US.   

But the US has invested less than $20 billion in India.

Why is the world after USA?

The secret lies in American spending, that they hardly save for.  In fact they use their credit cards to spend their future income.  That the USA spends is what makes it attractive to export to the USA.  So USA imports more than what it exports year after year.

The result is…..The world is dependent on USA consumption for its growth.  By its deepening culture of consumption, the USA has habituated the world to feed on USA consumption. But as the USA needs money to finance its consumption, the world provides the money.

It is like a shopkeeper providing the money to a customer so that the customer keeps buying from the shop.  If the customer will not buy, the shop won't have business, unless the shopkeeper funds him. The US is like the lucky customer….and the world is like the helpless shopkeeper financier.

Who is America's biggest shopkeeper financier? Japan and China of course.  Yet Japan is regarded as weak economically.  Modern economists complain that Japanese do not spend, so they do not grow.  To force the Japanese to spend, the Japanese government exerted itself, reduced the savings interest rates to almost zero, even charged savers for keeping their money in the bank.  Still the Japanese did not spend (habits don't change, even with taxes, do they?).  Their traditional postal savings alone has over $1.2 trillion.  Thus, savings, far from being the strength of Japan, has become its pain.

CONCLUSION: That a nation cannot grow unless the people spend, not save. Not just spend, but borrow and spend.

This is a very Interesting article written by an Economist about the world economy. Disclaimer : This is purely a knowledge sharing article, not offering or influencing any deal or transaction or investments.

CA Yogesh Birla

Director
Birla WP Management Co.
read my blogs : www.YogeshBirlaCA.Blogspot.com

USD v/s Rouble.... bigger trouble matrix for EU and favourable for India

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/yogesh-birla-323821229_if-the-eu-refuses-to-pay-gas-in-roubles-activity-6915636815701921792-5L-5?utm_source=linkedin_share&utm_medium=android_app

Disclaimer : This is purely a knowledge sharing article, not offering or influencing any deal or transaction or investments.

CA Yogesh Birla

Director
Birla WP Management Co.
read my blogs : www.YogeshBirlaCA.Blogspot.com

Indian Women in Saving and Investment Economy

One fine day, I was asked a perplexing question,

Why do Indian women play no role in savings and investments ?????

I replied it's not true and following will be sufficient enough to prove my views :-

Women in their inimitable manner, have played an important role on the savings front in Indian households. This is a popular misconception, because women's investment choices are possibly more traditional. Being wired differently than men, women place great importance on factors like safety and tangibility, which amply reflect in their saving & investing preferences.

##GOLD, most of the yellow metals in Indian homes is purchased and owned by women. Even the gold inherited, reflects women's choices, rooted in our society since time inmemorial. No wonder, how Indian household own enough gold to meet America's requirement for next 100 years. You will notice the emotive appeal of every gold loan advertisement, is always directed towards a female gender. This asset has helped finance and mushroom many small and medium businesses across the country. These precious assets are powerful hedging instrument that women safeguard for helping economy in business.

##PROPERTY, DIAMONDS, same is the case with property, diamonds, art and collectibles, which are investable assets of measurable value. The likes of Cryptos / Bitcoins have a long way to go before they can earn a ladies trust as lifetime asset creation.

##FIXED INCOME INSTRUMENTS, when it comes to fixed income, I bet most of the post office deposits and Kisan Vikas Patra instruments are driven by women savings.

##CASH is actually queen !! Women are adept at best cash management. All will agree that during demonetisation in India, most cash was deposited by the woman members of the family.

##SHARES, coming to Equities, there is a big difference between low participation and no participation by women. But this too is changing.....It is heartening to note that indian study found that proportion of women equity investors too have grown from 16 % to 24% in just last two years in India stock markets.

##INTANGIBLE ASSETS, last but not the least are the intangible assets. Our little kids are the most precious assets to us. Need not to be mentioned, who plays the pivotal role in nurturing our future generations for individual, or for the nation.

Is there a need for more equal opportunity ?? 

Yes, But no one can deny the immeasurable role women play in our finances, saving economy and our overall life.

HAPPY WOMEN'S DAY !!

Disclaimer : This is purely a knowledge sharing article, not offering or influencing any deal or transaction or investments.

CA Yogesh Birla

Director
Birla WP Management Co.
read my blogs : www.YogeshBirlaCA.Blogspot.com

CryptoCurrency- Legality & Taxation in India – Budget 2022

It’s still a yaksh question, Why Taxation of Virtual Digital Assets (VDA) doesnot make it Legal in India ? 

Trading of crypto currency, NFT and other virtual digital assets (VDA) is rising on a rapid pace. The tax proposals by the Budget 2022 will achieve some level of certainty for the Income Tax Calculation. However legality of such transactions are yet to be blessed by the Indian Government. Taxation of VDA is being clarified by inserting section 115BBH in the Income Tax Act.

HIGHLIGHTS:

--Income from sale of VDA, such as CryptoCurrency, NFT etc would be taxed at base rate of 30% in India.

--No other expenses would be allowed as deduction, other than cost of acquisition.

--Loss from any other source cannot be set-off against income from VDA.

--Loss arising from sale of VDA cannot be setoff against any other income.

--Loss arising from VDA cannot be carried forward.

Still, cost of acquisition and sales consideration has not been defined, it is unclear whether brokerage paid, will be part of cost or will be deducted from sales consideration or not. This amendment will be applicable from 01-04-2022, hence the taxability of income from VDA is still open for interpretation for FY 2021-22.

Provision of taxability, does not itself makes the transaction legal. For determining legality of Cryptocurrency, it will be left to The CryptoCurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill, 2021. The scope of income tax act is restricted to provide for taxability of any transaction and even illegal transactions are being taxed.

Gifting of virtual digital asset have also been brought under tax ambit, by including it in the definition of property, under section 56. Therefore any gift of more than INR 50,000 (except few circumstances) would be taxable in the hands of recipient of such digital asset. It is generally seen that tax base is widened if tax is collected by way of TDS. Therefore, section 194S is proposed to be inserted which provided the following:

TDS deduction to be 1% on transactions. For specified persons TDS only to be deducted if value of the transaction exceeds INR 50,000 in a financial year. For other than specified person, TDS to be deducted if value of the transaction exceeds Rs. 10,000 in a particular financial year.

Important thing about Crypto Taxation is, the way Crypto transactions are conducted, buyer is not aware about the whereabouts of the seller. Therefore it will be impossible to deduct TDS of seller. In this case buyer may deduct TDS of the intermediary portal and take a reimbursement from them, which will be very cumbersome process. It would have been better, if the TDS would have been deducted by the crypto-portal itself, as an e-commerce operator under section 194-O.

If a NRI purchases VDA from a resident, it may have to take a TAN number in India and deduct the TDS. This will be again a very onerous responsibility.

Trading of crypto currency, NFT and other virtual assets is rising on a rapid pace. The above proposals by the budget will achieve some level of certainty of the Income Tax calculations only. However legality of such transactions are yet to be blessed by the government of India. Additionally, its taxability with relation to GST transaction is also not very clear. It will be great, if government clarifies its position and rest this controversy, once and forever. Shall conclude with the words, Earn & Pay Tax…...….let them fix Legality issues.

Disclaimer : This is purely a knowledge sharing article, not offering or influencing any deal or transaction or investments.

CA Yogesh Birla

Director
Birla WP Management Co.
read my blogs : www.YogeshBirlaCA.Blogspot.com

HOME LOAN: Fixed EMI & Rising Interest Rate... BE CAREFUL

In today's anemic loan offtake environment, bankers are screaming from giant hoardings offering lowest interest rates that are good enough to make you want to buy a house even if you don’t need it…….  6.5% Home Loans come with a silent warning.

Banks seeking low risk and return of capital enabled by a 0.35% risk weight from the regulator, they are betting their house on our houses.

In this lies a Caveat Emptor. These rates are floating rates only. They will rise faster than what you may have budgeted for monthly EMI. And with it will increase your tenure and you may realise that after paying for 5 years, your twenty year home loan still has a residual tenure of  twenty years.

While the jury is still out on when the rates will start moving up, that they are unlikely to go down further is near certain. I see inflation coming faster than what the pundits are telling us and with this will begin the rate ride up.

If you are taking a home loan this is a great time but in your calculation, mentally budget and be ready for 8% - 8.5% interest rate, for when it does go near there you have room to increase EMI payments. So enjoy it while it lasts, but don’t bet on it to stay this way for too long. If you cannot increase the EMI with rising rates, your tenure will keep extending making you into a modern day Sisyphus.

आज यदि आपने सड़को पर बड़े बड़े होर्डिंग्स देख कर सिर्फ 6.50% या 7.50% ब्याज पर, Fixed EMI होमलोन ले लिया, तो इसके अंदर छुपी हुई रिस्क से सावधान जरूर रहिए । क्योंकि जैसे ही ब्याज की दर वार्षिक 1% बढ़ती है, और आप EMI नही बढ़वाते है तो बैंक, आपके होमलोन की अवधि 20 वर्ष से 24 वर्ष हो जाती है, और यदि ब्याज 2% बढ़ गया, तो फिक्स EMI में आपकी लोन अवधि 20 वर्ष से 30 वर्ष तक बढ़ जाती है । अतः ब्याज दर बढ़ने के साथ, मासिक EMI भी बढ़ाते रहे, नही तो लोन का Tenure बढ़ता रहेगा ।

For the statistically inclined, if interest rates move up by 1% yearly, after you avail the 20 year loan the tenure goes over 24 years (from 20 years) and if interest rate move up by 2% yearly, your tenure goes over 35 years (from 20 years), assuming constant EMI. So by all means take a home loan, but when interest rates move up, be mentally ready to increase your EMI payments. This is a teaser rate. If you are fully stretched now, when rates move up you won't find yourself in a happy place. In your calculations budget a minimum 2% rate increase and enjoy the discount right now while it lasts. Teaser rates on Adjustable Rate Mortgages were at the heart of the 2007 meltdown in the US, memories can sometimes be short.

Remember, banks are betting on multiple houses, you are betting on only one so your room for error is ZERO. Keep that in mind......before signing a home loan mandate.

Disclaimer : This is purely a knowledge sharing article, not offering or influencing any deal or transaction or investments.

CA Yogesh Birla

Director
Birla WP Management Co.
read my blogs : www.YogeshBirlaCA.Blogspot.com

Share Market.... real learning for common Investor

Let's understand Indian Stock Market, how it works with balancing of Sensex, Nifty and Share prices, with a example case study on TATA MOTORS listed shares.

On 1st December 2017, Tata Motors share was at INR 399

On 3rd April 2020, Tata Motors share was at INR 65

Today 3rd September 2021, Tata Motors share is at INR 295

Those who have bought this stock in year 2017, will have a significantly different view on this share than those who have bought it in year 2020.

And between 2017 and now, fundamentally nothing much has changed in Tata Motors to warrant this kind of volatility.

So, despite all the research and analysis, predicting stock movement can't be perfected because ultimately the price will depend on views, opinions and calls. Research and analysis will always have a time lag.

And yes Tata Motors is not any ordinary company, if this is the treatment to stock price of such a reputed company think what research analysis will you do for any other company

"It is easier to Buy & Sell than fry an Egg".  The hidden role of chance in life and in the markets, as written by Nicholas Taleb.

One may think that the stock market seems very simple but when you include randomness to the equation, everything changes. 

Bottom Line Learning: Stock Market seems very simple, but not easy. 

You could be a world class Neuro Surgeon if you spent 5 years studying Neuro Surgery. But even after 5 years studying Stock Market there's no guarantee that one will be anywhere close to be a world class trader.

Remember, Too many variables involved here (Psychology, Money Risk management, Liquid Capital, Stock in question, it's History, Management background, Product plans, market Sentiment, war /  famine / corona / pandemic etc etc...)

It's indeed a very demanding profession. One needs to put the heart & soul (read passion) behind it, to achieve something while most wannabes think it's a type of get rich quick scheme. 

Sounds simple right....... always Buy at low and sell at high.

I am still learning.... you may also learn and earn.....

Disclaimer : This is purely a knowledge sharing article, not offering or influencing any deal or transaction or investments.

CA Yogesh Birla

Director
Birla WP Management Co.
read my blogs : www.YogeshBirlaCA.Blogspot.com

Making Profits from E-commerce Companies in Emerging India

India an emerging digital consumer market, wherein it appears to be a wonderful time if you want to be a reasonably successful internet company in India.

CA. Yogesh Birla

First, there are more unicorns being created than anytime in the recent past. It looks like practically everyone is getting funding in India. In fact, the total funding raised by startups in India this year has exceeded the previous year by a billion dollars. And we are still just in July 2021.

Second, if you are an internet company that’s been around for a while, there’s an even more attractive option—going public. Yes. For far too long, CEOs of Indian internet companies have made promises and teased the idea of wanting to do an Initial Public Offering (IPO), and finally, it looks like some of them have bitten the bullet. Zomato’s IPO is going live next week. And there are reports of companies like Paytm*, Delhivery, and Flipkart who are going down this path too.

Prime reasons are…… There’s a lot of liquidity in the private and public markets right now—which is true. Others may argue that this was inevitable, and represents the coming-of-age of internet companies, many of whom witnessed growth during the pandemic or in the case of Zomato, Flipkart, Paytm, have been operating thanks to venture capital for nearly a decade. This is the endgame. It’s here. It’s India’s moment.

All of this is true to varying degrees, but the actual reason is quite different.

It’s a secret that’s being whispered among some VCs, founders, and market researchers in India. It’s something many people have noticed, but are somewhat uncomfortable talking about openly.

And today, I’ll use it to explain why all of these companies are suddenly getting funded or going public. And along with that, we’ll also see why India’s internet sector, which boomed for over a decade with several companies going from smaller companies to unicorns and from unicorns to decacorns, will likely never see a global pure play 100 billion dollar internet company emerge anytime soon.

Here is the secret.... The number of active internet customers in India has stopped growing. This customer base represents the total addressable market for most Indian internet companies. Until now, this market was growing rapidly.

Now, this growth has essentially flatlined.

But if the number of customers has mostly stayed the same, then why are we seeing a surge in funding for these companies? And why are some companies going public?

Let’s dive in...... If you are an internet company in India and a VC asks you what your addressable market size is, you may be tempted to say that it’s 1.4 billion.

So you may say, well, it’s the number of Indians with a mobile connection in India, which is a little less than a billion. But not all of them have access to the internet. So you say, well, then, it’s the number of people who have mobile data. Which brings it down to around 400 million. But then that includes feature phone users, who can’t run most apps anyway. So you cut them out. Then users who technically have a smartphone, but it’s a smartphone in name only and can’t do much. Cut. Access to online payment mechanisms. Cut. Disposable income for consumption. Cut.

Then we remove the ones who have used their phones just to do digital transactions like, say, transfer money to each other or recharge their mobile plan. Also those who use it just as a free media consumption device, like watching videos on TikTok or YouTube.

After all of this, you’ll end up with an estimate of the number of annual active customers (AAC) in India. These are the users who have access to the internet through a smartphone, use mobile apps, have some disposable income, and have bought something online at least once a year. E-commerce. Shopping. Food Delivery. Rides. Subscriptions.

Well, if you really stretch it, it’s about 70 million users (realistically, it’s closer to 40-50 million, but more on this later). That’s about the population of the United Kingdom.

There are empirical ways to validate this. A great proxy is the number of postpaid mobile users in India, which is around 50 million, who form the bulk of this base. There are multiple reports from a couple of years back which validate this 50 million number as well. Maybe it’s grown since then to, say, 70 million users, but that’s more or less where the outer limit is today. According to a source I spoke to, that’s also more or less the number of unique customers who have bought a product at least once last year on the biggest horizontal e-commerce platforms in India—Amazon or Flipkart.

Essentially, if you want to make money online in India, you’ll need to take it from these 70 million users.

Well, let’s see. Broadly, these 70 million users can be broken down into three categories, assuming it’s a pyramid.

Level C : India’s entry shoppers. At the lowest level, with the broadest base, comprising roughly 40 million users.

These users are the ones who have bought something online, but have done it very sparingly. Maybe once or twice last year, and they have done it because they heard that one gets a good deal online for a really important purchase, which is usually a mobile phone. They buy one product, and almost never buy anything else online, certainly not from websites outside the big horizontal e-commerce players.

Level B : India’s occasional shoppers. At the middle level, comprising roughly 20 million users

These users may buy something online, but will venture outside online shopping very, very sparingly. Think of users like our moms and dads, who spend money online to get food from Zomato as a treat, or maybe take an Ola once a month if they are feeling particularly generous.

Level A : India’s California users. At the highest level, comprising 10 million users

If you are reading this, you are likely in this category. You are a digital native. You buy nearly everything online—from products, to groceries, to food. You may even have a Netflix subscription. You are the elite user—the one with a lot of spending power, and who is comfortable buying that lipstick from Nykaa or that cold brew from that fancy direct-to-consumer startup in Indiranagar, Bangalore. You probably use Dunzo, and maybe even pay your bills on CRED.

This is the customer everyone desperately wants, especially because India’s California users punch above their weight. They may be just 15% of the active transacting customer base, but according to one founder I spoke to, they account for nearly 40% of the money spent by this pyramid.

Again, there are ways to triangulate this. In its recent pre-IPO report, Zomato, which is a food delivery service and had a strong use-case during a pandemic, reported an average monthly transacting user base of...10 million users. Netflix has about 3 million subscribers in India (and has started tapping out) CRED claims to have about 6 million. Amazon Prime has 6-7 million users.

10 million users. …..That’s the population of Sweden.

The reason why everyone is fighting for the same users is because this base of 70 million users isn’t growing as rapidly as it should. The growth of this pie is tied to one thing, and that’s the per capita GDP of India. If more Indians make wealth, then more people will fall into this consumer pyramid. Right now, that does not seem to be happening fast enough. Here’s a graph of the GDP per capita growth of India. Notice the growth rates below in green bars. See how they’ve gotten smaller with time.

India’s current per capita GDP is a little over $2,000 right now. There’s a direct link between the per capita GDP and the number of active transacting customers online. And it’s not linear. 

Take China for instance, which has a per capita GDP of around $10,000. That’s five times of India. Alibaba, their largest online horizontal commerce platform, has an active transacting customer base of 800 million users. 

India has just a tenth of that, assuming the best case scenario.

And this was before the pandemic. We still don’t know the full impact of Covid, but it has almost certainly set us back by several years, with millions thrown back into poverty. China, on the other hand, has rushed ahead. Remember, any growth we may have seen in the GDP per capita has also almost certainly been inequitable— it’s gone to the rich people and less to the poor. This is likely why we probably haven’t moved much from the 70 million number.

All of this leads to a few implications........

Implication 1 : Horizontal players like Flipkart and Amazon are at the outer limits

Both of them have practically captured most of this pyramid, and are now in the business of trying to maximise repeat purchases or even a second purchase from a large part of the 70 million of this pyramid, and a first purchase from those outside it.

This does not mean that they won’t grow. They will. But it will be a long, hard, and expensive grind.

Implication 2 : The rise of vertical-specific players from this 50-70 million pyramid

Any new internet company has to play within this pyramid, and the more successful ones are creating use-cases for verticals. Food Delivery. Rides. Fashion. Groceries.

The best part is that winning that vertical is good enough. If a company is able to get just 2-3 million users, especially from that top 10 million India-Californian customers, they are golden. Take Licious, which recently reported that it had delivered to over 2 million users. Poof. Unicorn.

Take my money, says the VC. You are a market leader in that vertical, so I’m going to back you.

This is one of the reasons why leaders in individual verticals are getting a surge in funding. VCs have decided that winning a vertical is good enough for now, and so they are backing the leaders.

But why? Because...

Implication 3 : It doesn’t take a lot to compete in a vertical and stay competitive

Remember that these 10 million users aren’t value conscious. They are product and service conscious. If something is a better product, these users switch to it. Everyone was buying cosmetics and beauty on Myntra and Flipkart until Nykaa came along. Licious took money away from offline groceries. Pharmeasy took money away from medicine stores.

You don’t need a lot of money to stay competitive if you are a vertical leader. Maybe $200-300 million a year tops, according to the aforementioned founder I spoke to. It’s a no-brainer for a VC to fund a vertical leader for that amount and give them a unicorn valuation.

This is why we are seeing a sudden rise in unicorns in India. Salaries go through the roof. All these companies are competing for the same talent in India. The pie of qualified, smart developers in India is also not growing.

Implication 4 : However, at a certain point, it gets harder to justify valuations from VCs

From a VC standpoint, returns are expected over a 3-5 year period. And that’s why we’ll see the rise of many unicorns in India, and maybe even a couple of decacorns, but no more.

There are limits to vertical companies. And that limit is 10 million users. Once a company hits that number, very few private capital players are willing to fund companies because it’s clear that the next level of growth is going to take a long, long time.

Much more than 3-5 years, which is a typical VC horizon.

Implication 5 : So some companies go public

At this point, companies just choose to go public. Public issue markets have more liquidity, and they have more patience with companies, which need a place to wait it out until the pie grows, which may take 7-10 years. And if VCs can’t wait that long, maybe the public will.

The question is how many companies can enter into the public issue market, and at what point does the valuation stop making sense, even for an excited public market.... That’s the real question based on entrepreneurial capabilities with smart working professionals....

Year 2021 & beyond.......

~ Data is new oil

~ Technology is new consumption

~ Equity is new real estate

~ Rural is new middle class

~ Retail is new institution

~ Small to mid quality companies will be chased

~ Famed sectors of old days will face slow death

~ Millennials dictating the trend

contributed by : (expert advisor for raising private equity and entrepreneurial funding for innovative start-ups)

CA Yogesh Birla

Director
Birla WP Management
read my blogs : www.YogeshBirlaCA.Blogspot.com

Shares & Mutual Funds मुनाफे पर..... Income Tax कैसे लगता है

CA Yogesh Birla

पुरातन समय से कहावत चली आ रही है कि अपनी मासिक आय में से, भविष्य हेतु बचत करने के बाद ही, वर्तमान का खर्चा करना चाहिए, वही व्यक्ति सदैव सुखी रहता है । इस बचत को हमलोग Share, Mutual Funds, Realestate, Gold आदि में Invest करते है, एवं जब उनको वापिस बेचते है, तो Income-tax लगता है । बहुत बार लोगो को आयकर का ज्ञान नही होने से, वो बहुत कम मुनाफे पर शेयर्स बेच देते है, एवम फिर पता चलता है कि, जितना प्रॉफिट कमाया, उससे तो ज्यादा इनकम टैक्स भरना है । अतः इन बातों का ध्यान रखें :-

शेयर बाजार में निवेश :-

Short Term Capital Gains :- यदि हम किसी शेयर को खरीदने के 12 महीने के भीतर ही बेच कर लाभ कमा लेते है, तो यह शार्ट टर्म केपिटल गेन कहलायेगा । इस पर 15% की दर से आयकर लगेगा । यदि आप शेयर को नुकसान में बेचते है, तो loss को अगले 8 साल तक carry forward करके भविष्य के profit से setoff किया जा सकता है ।

Long Term Capital Gains :- यदि हम किसी शेयर को खरीदने के 12 महीने के बाद बेच कर लाभ कमाते है, तो यह लांग-टर्म केपिटल गेन कहलायेगा । यदि कुल मुनाफा 1 लाख रुपये से अधिक है, तो इस पर 10% की दर से आयकर लगेगा । यदि आप शेयर को नुकसान में बेचते है, तो loss को अगले 8 साल तक carry forward करके भविष्य के सिर्फ Long term capital gains से ही setoff किया जा सकता है ।

Share Day Trading (without Delivery) :- यदि आप रोजाना शेयर खरीद बेच रहे है, परंतु डिलीवरी नही ले रहे है, तो यह आपकी सट्टे से होने वाली आय  (Speculative Profit) कहलाएगी। इस पर आपकी normal slab rate के हिसाब से ही आयकर लगेगा । बेचने में यदि नुकसान हुआ है तो वह सिर्फ अगले 4 वर्षो तक carry forward किया जा सकता है एवं भविष्य में होने वाली सिर्फ Speculative income से ही setoff किया जा सकता है ।

म्यूचअल फण्ड में निवेश :-

Equity Mutual Funds :- यदि इक्विटी म्यूच्यूअल फण्ड में किया गया निवेश, खरीद के 12 माह से कम में बेच दिया गया है तो मुनाफे पर 15% आयकर लगेगा । यदि निवेश को खरीद के 12 माह से अधिक होल्ड करके बेचा गया है, तो मुनाफे पर  सिर्फ 10% आयकर ही लगेगा (यदि मुनाफा 1 लाख से कम है, तो यह आयकर मुक्त है) ।

Debt Mutual Funds :- यदि डेब्ट म्यूच्यूअल फण्ड में किया गया निवेश, खरीद के 3 वर्ष के भीतर बेच दिया गया है, तो इस पर नार्मल आयकर स्लैब के हिसाब से ही आयकर लगेगा।  यदि निवेश को खरीद के 3 वर्ष से अधिक होल्ड करके बेचा गया है, तो मुनाफे पर 20% आयकर लगेगा (indexation का लाभ लेना ना भूले) । यदि इस निवेश को बेचने से नुकसान हुआ है तो इसको अगले 8 वर्षो तक carry forward करके setoff किया जा सकता है ।

यदि निवेश करने के साथ ही साथ आप इस पर मिलने वाले डिविडेंड पर आयकर, खरीद बेचान के मुनाफे पर आयकर आदि का ध्यान रखेंगे, तो अपने निवेश पर अधिक मुनाफा कमा पाएंगे एवं अपने Investment Advisor / Broker से उचित मार्गदर्शन भी प्राप्त कर पाएंगे ।

contributed by :

CA Yogesh Birla

Director
Birla WP Management
read my blogs : www.YogeshBirlaCA.Blogspot.com